Energy Bridge Magazine

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Robert Johnston, PhD
Eurasia Group (Washington)

去年石油市场的突出特征是超大型石油公司和国有石油公司高调投资北美致密油资源远景区，这些投资活动与依旧强劲的北美页岩气远景区投资相呼应，使致密油资源更加吸引眼球。

对 致密油的关注很可能将北美石油储量提高五十至一百五十亿桶，但许多人辩称致密油不会像页岩气那样具有变革性的影响。可这种分析忽略了致密油开采技术和专长 向世界其它地方扩散的可能性，在这些地方，储量增长量和最终开采量的上涨趋势要强得多。致密油开采技术和专长的扩散可能通过公司的活动而发生，如中国石油 天然气集团（CNPC）和挪威国家石油（Statoil）之类的公司可从设在Niobrara(奈厄布拉勒)、Eagle Ford(伊格福特)和Bakken(巴肯)等致密油远景区的合资企业将开采经验和知识带入其它市场，而埃克森美孚之类的公司则通过与俄罗斯石油（Rosneft）公司合作经营直接开发致密油资源。

致密油远景区的发现，加拿大起着核心作用。除在西加拿大沉积盆地发现重大致密油矿床之外，拥有加压泵抽、油层增产、水平钻井、多级水力压裂以及其它非常规采油技术等专长的加拿大石油服务公司也正在发挥关键性作用。Trican、 Packers Plus、Sanjel、GasFrac以及Precision Drilling之类的公司也是该领域的世界级领袖。因阿尔伯塔Deep Basin地质特征独特，加上拥有成熟油田，加拿大石油服务公司的专长获得普遍认可。

English | 中文版

Robert Johnston, PhD
Eurasia Group (Washington)

High-profile investments by super-majors and national oil companies into the tight oil resource plays of North America have characterized the oil market over the past year. These investments, echoing the still-strong investment in North American shale gas plays, are raising the profile of the tight oil resource.

The focus on tight oil could boost likely North American oil reserves by somewhere around 5-15 billion barrels—but many argue that it will not be as transformative as shale gas. Such analysis misses the potential export of tight oil production techniques and expertise around the world, where the upside for reserves growth and eventual production is much higher. Such dissemination could occur via companies such as China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) and Statoil taking experience and knowledge from joint ventures in the Niobrara, Eagle Ford, and Bakken tight oil plays into other markets, while companies such as ExxonMobil are partnering with national oil companies like Rosneft to develop tight oil resources directly.

Canada is playing a central role in the emergence of the tight oil play.  In addition to the presence of significant tight oil deposits in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin , Canadian oil service firms with expertise in pressure pumping, reservoir stimulation, horizontal drilling, multi-stage hydraulic fracturing and other unconventional oil production techniques are playing a key role.  Companies such as Trican, Packers Plus, Sanjel, GasFrac, and Precision Drilling are among the world leaders in these areas.  Canadian firms are recognized for their expertise because of the geological characteristics of the deep basin  and mature oil fields of Alberta.

English Version | 中文版

Robert Johnston
Eurasia Group

包 括阿尔伯塔省和卑诗省省长在内的加拿大政治领导，都大力支持制定从加拿大西海岸向全球市场出口液化天然气的多重出口战略。相对于液化天然气出口，拟议中的 从阿尔伯塔省到太平洋的油砂出口项目受到的政治争议更多，这些油砂出口项目已然受制于加拿大议会2010年12月7日进行的一次投票表决，表决通过了一项 并无法律效力的动议，呼吁立法禁止油轮航行至基蒂马特港。

在油轮问题可能影响油砂出口的情况下，天然气出口方面，加拿大更加清楚地意识 到，由于美国本土页岩气勘探区的竞争，加拿大东部和美国的市场日趋饱和，加拿大东部和美国市场的失守导致卑诗省北部页岩气勘探区的天然气出口必须寻找新的 市场；相比之下，油砂在美国的墨西哥湾沿岸炼油市场上仍然有着很大的增长潜力，因此，短期看来，向亚洲出口油砂显得不是那么迫切。

如果作 为先行者的基蒂马特港液化天然气项目按计划推进，于2015年开始出口，它将是加拿大对迅速增长的全球天然气市场的第一个贡献。目前，液化天然气市场容量 已然增长，不过，近年来的产能扩张主要以卡塔尔的Qatargas和RasGas两个项目为主，其产能合计达到了7700万吨/年。卡塔尔这两个大型项目 共有14条液化天然气生产线，最后一条于2010年投入使用。在未来几年，随着澳大利亚的Pluto、Queensland LNG、Gorgon和Wheatstone等大型液化天然气项目的产能提升，液化天然气供应量的增长将主要来自澳大利亚。Apache Energy公司、EOG Resources公司和EnCana公司共同开发的基蒂马特港液化天然气接收站将分两期建设，建成后其液化天然气出口能力可能高达1000万吨/年 （13亿立方英尺/天，即3681万立方米/天）。 为了有助于向加拿大国家能源委员会提出基蒂马特港液化天然气项目的申请，由Poten & Partners咨询公司编制了一份报告。该报告预测亚洲的液化天然气市场在2020年前将会有4700万吨/年的缺口，因此加拿大天然气出口还有充足的 增长空间。该报告还重点指出竞争对手澳大利亚和巴布亚新几内亚的液化天然气项目成本较高，并暗示基蒂马特港液化天然气项目对于亚洲买家来说应该具有竞争 力。

English Version | 中文版

Robert Johnston
Eurasia Group

The development of multiple export strategies for liquefied natural gas exports from the West Coast of Canada to global markets is backed by strong political support from Canadian political leaders, including both the Premiers of Alberta and British Columbia. LNG exports face less political controversy than proposed oil sands export projects to the Pacific Ocean from Alberta, which have already been subject to a non-binding vote barring oil tanker traffic to the port of Kitimat, in the Canadian Parliament on 7 December 2010.

In addition to the tanker issue, there is a clearer sense with respect to natural gas exports that exports of gas from the shale gas plays of northern BC must find a new market due to the absence of markets in Eastern Canada and the US, as those regions are increasingly saturated by competing shale gas plays in the lower 48.  By contrast, oil sands still have significant growth potential in the US Gulf Coast refining market, making the case for a short-term outlet to Asia somewhat less pressing.

English | 网上阅读中文版

Robert Johnston
Eurasia Group

2005年中国海洋石油有限公司（以下简称“中海油”）并购优尼科（Unocal）公司（以下简称“优尼科”）失败已成为国有石油公司和公开上市的 私营国际石油公司利益冲突时出现的地缘政治复杂性的试金石。然而，从2010年的情景看来，有很多理由认为这种看法已不再准确。事实上，阿尔伯塔省油砂， 以及其它边缘的/高成本的市场，如全球的页岩气、澳大利亚的液化天然气及新出现的伊拉克石油远景区，出现的趋势表明了一种新的合作模式。尽管此种新模式有 时仍然会受到多变的双边政治关系的制约，但是这种合作的趋势却是很强的。

2005年，中海油（中国的三大国家石油公司之一）投标收购优尼 科（美国最大的独立石油生产商之一）。但是，优尼科是一家美国公司，许多市场观察家认为中海油最看重的是优尼科在亚洲的深水项目，这些项目会扩大中海油的 海上油气资产。此次收购在华盛顿引发了一场政治风暴，最终导致中海油撤回它的投标，而优尼科最终被雪佛龙收购。

“中海油并购优尼科案”引起了决策者和市场参与者对中国的国家石油公司活动的新关注。2004年中国石油进口量创出了一个高峰，自此中国石油需求的增长和能源安全已成为，并持续成为全球石油地缘政治的主题。

然 而，自“中海油并购优尼科案”以来，情况已有了很大的变化。在那之后，已有多项中国对阿尔伯塔油砂的投资，最大的是2010年4月中石化收购 ConocoPhillips公司所持有的加拿大最大油砂公司Syncrude财团 9%的股权。此外，尽管中美关系日益复杂，中国的国家石油公司仍然再一次地在美国市场开展了试探性的直接投资活动。包括中海油在2010年11月对 Eagle Ford页岩气远景区的投资，以及它在2009年11月收购了墨西哥湾四个深水区块的开采权益。

English | 中文版

Robert Johnston
Eurasia Group

The 2005 failed transaction between CNOOC and Unocal has become the touchstone for the geopolitical complications that emerge when the interests of state-owned national oil companies and publicly-held private international oil companies clash.  Yet from the perspective of 2010, there are multiple reasons to think that this perception is no longer accurate.  Indeed, the emerging trends in the Alberta oilsands, – as well as other frontier/high cost markets such as global shale gas, Australian LNG, and the emerging Iraqi oil play – suggest a new model for cooperation.  Such a model will remain constrained at times by the vagaries of bilateral political relationships, but the trend toward cooperation is strong.

In 2005, CNOOC, one of the three major Chinese national oil companies, made a bid to acquire Unocal, one of the largest US independent petroleum producers. While Unocal was a US-based company, many market observers believed that the CNOOC interest in Unocal was driven by its portfolio of deepwater projects in Asia that would complement CNOOC’s own offshore interests. The acquisition created a political firestorm in Washington, that ultimately led CNOOC to withdraw its bid and Unocal ultimately was acquired by Chevron.

The Unocal case drew new attention among policy-makers and market participants with respect to the activities of China’s NOCs. Coming on the back of a major spike in Chinese oil imports in 2004, Chinese oil demand growth and energy security became – and remains – a dominant theme in global oil geopolitics.